Market Analysis Report: Global and China ABF Substrate Industry Research 2022 (Presentation)

According to different substrates, IC substrates can be divided into BT substrates and ABF substrates. Compared with BT substrates, ABF material can be used for ICs with thinner lines, suitable for high pin count and high message transmission, and has higher computing power. It is mainly used for high computing performance chips such as CPU, GPU, FPGA, and ASIC. This paper studies the ABF substrate, also called ABF carrier, or FC-BGA carrier. FC-BGA carrier board is a high-density semiconductor packaging substrate that can realize high-speed and multi-functional LSI chips. It can be used in CPU, GPU, high-end servers, ASICs for network routers/converters, MPUs for high-performance game consoles, and high-performance ASSPs , FPGA and ADAS in vehicle equipment.

1.1.1 Analysis of the current status of the ABF substrate industry
[Unbalanced supply and demand] As we all know, semiconductor is a very typical cyclical industry. This feature is reflected in the entire industry chain from upstream equipment and materials, to chip design, and then to wafer manufacturing, even if it is only in chip packaging. The little ABF carrier board required is no exception. Ten years ago, due to the decline of the desktop and notebook computer markets, the supply of ABF carrier boards was severely oversupplied, and the entire industry fell into a low ebb, but ten years later, the ABF industry has reignited.

[Manufacturers are mainly concentrated in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea] At present, the FCBGA packaging substrate industry is mainly concentrated in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea and other countries and regions, such as Samsung, Nanya, Xinxing, Kyocera, Jingshuo and other companies. Mainland China, mainly the factory of Austrian company AT&S in Chongqing.
In mainland China, only a small number of companies such as Shennan, Yueya, and Huajin have the ability to mass-produce FCBGA packaging substrates with line width/line spacing of 15/15μm and blind hole diameter ≤40μm. Great room for development.

[High monopoly of upstream raw materials] ABF film of upstream raw materials is mainly monopolized by Ajinomoto Japan, and it is expected that this status quo will not change in the short term.


1.1.2 Development Trend of ABF Substrates
[Development of high-frequency, high-speed, light, small, thin, and portable] At present, the design and manufacture of global electronic information products are mainly developed in the direction of high-frequency, high-speed, light, small, thin, portable development and multi-functional system integration. Based on the high-end integrated circuit market has developed rapidly and become mainstream.

[Increased demand for high-performance computing chips] The demand for HPC high-performance computing chips has increased, and the consumption of single-chip carrier boards has increased due to the application of heterogeneous integration technologies, and the demand for ABF carrier boards has increased significantly.

[Domestic demand] At present, the development of the semiconductor industry in mainland China is accelerating, and the production capacity of domestic wafer fabs continues to expand, while the matching rate of domestic carrier boards is only about 10%. In the future, domestic carrier board manufacturers have broad prospects for growth. At present, in terms of ABF carrier boards, domestic local manufacturers are only producing in small batches. It is expected that in the next five years, domestic manufacturers will still have a weak voice in this segment.

[Dispersed factories] Some Japanese and European manufacturers have gradually increased their investment in Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia.

1.1.3 Risks faced by the development of the ABF substrate industry
[Upstream material monopoly] ABF film, the key material of ABF carrier board, is monopolized by Ajinomoto Company of Japan. At present, although Ajinomoto Company has announced that it will increase the production of ABF materials, the downstream demand for the surge in production scale is more conservative.

[ABF carrier yield decline] The increase in the ABF carrier area causes the carrier production yield to decrease, resulting in capacity loss. Under the trend of the downstream chip packaging area increasing, it means that the actual capacity expansion rate of the ABF carrier will be lower than the market. expected.

[Russian-Ukraine War] The Russian-Ukrainian war has had a huge impact on the global economy and politics so far, especially pushing up global energy costs and food supply. The current situation is very uncertain, and the future is full of great uncertainty.

[US technology restrictions and trade frictions against China] The US is suppressing China in all aspects, especially restricting China's scientific and technological development. The limitations in the semiconductor field are particularly pronounced.

1.1.5 Overall Overview of Global ABF Substrate Market Size
According to the statistics and forecast of QYR (Hengzhou Bozhi), the global ABF substrate market sales will reach US$4.368 billion in 2021, and it is expected to reach US$6.529 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.56% (2022-2028). ). From a regional perspective, the Chinese market has changed rapidly in the past few years. In 2021, the market size will be US$664 million, accounting for about 15.2% of the global market. It is expected to reach US$1,364 million in 2028, when the global share will reach 20.9%. .

In terms of consumption, Taiwan is currently the world's largest consumer market, accounting for 25% of the market in 2021, followed by South Korea, the United States and mainland China, with 20%, 15% and 15% respectively. China is expected to grow the fastest in the next few years, with a CAGR of approximately 9.5% during 2022-2028.

From the perspective of production, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea dominate the production of global ABF substrates. In 2021, the output of these three regions will account for 25%, 44% and 9.9% of the market share respectively. It is expected that in the next few years, mainland China and Southeast Asia The region will maintain its growth rate.

In terms of product types, 4-8 layers account for the largest proportion, and it is expected that ABF substrates with 8-16 layers and above will occupy a larger share in the next few years. In terms of downstream applications, PC is still the largest downstream market, with a market share of about 61%, followed by servers/data centers, with a share of 17.8%. In the next few years, HPC/AI chips are expected to grow the fastest. The compound growth rate (CAGR) for 2023-2028 is about 21.8%.

From the perspective of manufacturers, globally, the core manufacturers of ABF substrates mainly include Xinxing Electronics, Yifei Electric, Nanya Circuit Board, Xinguang Electric, Jingshuo Technology, AT&S and Samsung Electro-Mechanics. In 2021, the seventh largest player in the world will hold more than 80% of the market share. In the next few years, potential entrants include LG InnoTek, Shennan Circuits and Xingsen Technology, etc. It is expected that more IC substrate manufacturers will enter the ABF substrate field.